The continent holds roughly 30% of the world’s known mineral reserves, including dominant shares of manganese, platinum, chromium, cobalt, and graphite. These resources are moving from niche status to strategic importance as demand for clean technologies soars.
Global need for materials to scale batteries, EVs, wind, and solar is set to more than double by 2030. The World Bank projects production of graphite, lithium, and cobalt could rise by as much as 500% by 2050 versus 2018.
Who invests, and how supply chains form, will shape which countries capture value from this surge. China’s Belt and Road engagement in the region reached $21.7 billion in 2023, with $8–10 billion tied to resource projects. By contrast, U.S. investment was $7.4 billion, under $300 million of which targeted these assets.
This report maps demand drivers, major deposits, and who is building processing and trade routes. Timely, transparent development and resilient market links will determine whether these resources power sustainable growth and secure manufacturing supply for the United States and the world.
Key Takeaways
- Africa supplies a large share of the raw inputs needed for the global clean-energy buildout.
- Surging demand is transforming once-rare commodities into strategic assets.
- Investment patterns and processing capacity now shape downstream value and market power.
- Decisions on partnerships and infrastructure made today will affect decades of clean-tech manufacturing.
- The report covers trends, deposit maps, investors, and evolving supply routes.
The present moment: demand spikes and why Critical minerals Africa matter now
A fast-moving surge in demand is reshaping global supply networks for battery inputs and other clean-tech raw materials. This moment links policy, trade, and investment to long-term manufacturing choices.
Clean energy demand to 2030–2050: graphite, lithium, and cobalt surging
Electrification of transport and grid storage is the main driver. Production of graphite, lithium, and cobalt for clean energy could rise by as much as 500% by 2050 versus 2018. Batteries now sit at the center of new industries and capital flows across countries.
Why this is a U.S. issue: national security, EVs, semiconductors, and defense supply chains
Concentration of processing and export controls create real risks. China’s 2024 export limits showed how trade moves can ripple through semiconductors and defense. A U.S. Geological Survey estimate flagged a potential $3.4 billion GDP impact, and a congressional report noted China supplies over half of U.S. need for many key inputs.
- Manufacturing scale: EV adoption and utility storage raise minerals intensity.
- Policy levers: tax credits and procurement shape upstream investment.
- Supply resilience: diversified routes cut single-point failures in the supply chain.
Africa’s resource base and market potential in the global energy transition
The continent’s ore endowment now sits at the center of a fast-moving global clean-energy supply chain. Roughly 30% of the world’s known reserves are here, including about 85% of manganese, 80% of platinum-group metals and chromium, 47% of cobalt, and 21% of graphite.
Continental reserves snapshot
These concentrations map directly to batteries, fuel cells, and renewable technologies. Cobalt and graphite feed batteries. Manganese and platinum-group metals support grid and industrial uses.
Untapped upside and financing gaps
Many basins remain underexplored. Modern geoscience and data-driven surveys can reveal new deposits and fresh opportunities.
Yet an annual infrastructure financing gap of about $100 billion—for power, rail, roads, and ports—raises project risk and raises the cost of capital.
From deposits to green industries
Local processing of ores into cathode-active materials and anode-grade graphite captures value at origin. That supports domestic sectors, builds skills, and eases downstream bottlenecks.
“Bankable projects and blended finance are essential to de-risk early-stage ventures and attract long-term capital.”
- Clear regulation and strong ESG practices boost investor confidence.
- Targeted infrastructure and blended finance unlock pipelines to market.
- Translating in-ground resources into products creates jobs across multiple sectors.
Critical minerals Africa: who’s investing, where, and why
Capital is following geology: companies and states target high-grade basins and transport links. Large deals and targeted investment shape where ores become export cargo or feedstock for plants.
DRC, Angola, Zambia: the cobalt and copper corridor
The Democratic Republic of the Congo anchors cobalt supply with flagship assets like Tenke Fungurume. Nearby Angola and Zambia form a copper belt that underpins EV metals strategies.
Major transactions—MMG’s $1.875 billion Khoemacau purchase and JCHX’s 80% Lubambe buy—show how companies sequence capital to scale output and secure offtake.
Mozambique, South Africa, Uganda: graphite and rare earths momentum
Mozambique’s Balama Graphite Project secured a $150 million conditional loan from the U.S. DFC. South Africa’s Phalaborwa rare earths received a $50 million DFC equity injection.
These projects tie into nascent processing nodes and offtake deals that shorten routes to battery and tech markets.
Mali, Zimbabwe, Botswana: new lithium and copper entrants
Chinese investment backs Bougouni and Goulamina lithium in Mali, while Zimbabwe launched a $300 million lithium plant with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt’s Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe.
Botswana’s Khoemacau deal and fresh finds are repositioning these nations as credible player candidates for the global market.
- Investor motives: long-horizon industrial plans versus short-term offtake security shape deal structures.
- Spillovers: clustered projects lower costs through shared infrastructure and workforce development.
- Financing enablers: offtake agreements and price floors help unlock project funding and align timelines with downstream needs.
China’s footprint: Belt and Road Initiative capital, processing dominance, and project pipeline
Beijing’s investments pair ports, rails, and plants with offtake pacts that lock in feedstock for its manufacturers. In 2023, engagement under the belt road initiative reached $21.7 billion, with roughly $8–10 billion tied to critical minerals. State banks and SOEs move quickly, using loans and equity to secure assets from Tenke Fungurume to Khoemacau and Lubambe.
State-led model and swift asset moves
Chinese development finance and state-owned firms align capital with national policy. That model funds mines, builds nearby logistics, and signs long-term offtake deals.
Refining edge and downstream leverage
China controls about 85–90% of rare earth processing globally and imported nearly 90% of its cobalt from the Democratic Republic Congo in 2020. This refining edge gives pricing and bargaining power across supply chains.
Policy-driven demand: the “new three”
Beijing’s “new three” — EVs, lithium batteries, and solar — drives upstream deal flow. Firms invest in Mali and Zimbabwe projects to feed factories that make batteries and panels for the world.
“Integrated finance, logistics, and offtake agreements make China’s position durable—and hard for buyers to ignore.”
- Fast financing and bundled infrastructure shorten project timelines.
- Export controls and trade measures can reshape global chains and prompt buyers to diversify.
- African partners gain demand and roads, but face questions on transparency and ESG.
| Metric | China (2023) | Key projects |
|---|---|---|
| BRI engagement ($bn) | 21.7 | Tenke Fungurume, Khoemacau |
| Rare earth processing (%) | 85–90 | Bougouni, Goulamina |
| Cobalt import source (%) | ~90 from Democratic Republic Congo | Lubambe, Tenke |
The U.S. response: development finance, Minerals Security Partnership, and private-sector leverage
Washington’s approach pairs targeted capital with diplomacy to grow dependable supply routes for battery and tech sectors. U.S. agencies use grants, loans, and equity to lower project risk and signal confidence to private investors and companies seeking long-term contracts.
Development Finance Corporation and EXIM: grants, loans, and equity for African projects
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) has backed several named projects. DFC offered a $150 million conditional loan for Mozambique’s Balama graphite project and a $50 million equity stake in South Africa’s Phalaborwa rare earths effort.
Smaller technical grants include $3.4 million for Angola’s Longonjo and $5 million for Uganda’s Orom-Cross graphite work. DFC also provided $3.865 million to Trinity Metals in Rwanda and is doing due diligence on Tanzania’s Kabanga nickel. In 2023, EXIM lent $1.6 billion to Sub-Saharan Africa across mining and energy.
De-risking and ESG differentiation: transparency, rule of law, and commercial diplomacy
These tools aim to make projects bankable. Grants, loans, and equity de-risk early stages. That attracts institutional capital and creates offtake opportunities tied to united states needs for resilient inputs.
- Flagship portfolio: graphite in Mozambique and Uganda; rare earths in South Africa and Angola; potential nickel in Tanzania.
- Standards: the Minerals Security Partnership convened with eight african countries to align ESG, permitting, and community engagement.
- Commercial diplomacy: on-the-ground teams help governments and developers close approvals and finance deals quickly.
| Tool | Example | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Loan | Balama ($150m) | Signals investor confidence |
| Equity | Phalaborwa ($50m) | Supports downstream capacity |
| Grant | Orom-Cross ($5m) | Builds technical readiness |
“Blended finance and strong standards can convert resources into lasting development and secure supply for manufacturers.”
From mine to market: competing supply chains and the Lobito Corridor project
Competing logistics routes are turning local deposits into global supply opportunities. The DFC has backed development along the lobito corridor project, linking Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to Angola’s Port of Lobito. That creates a westward export route that complements eastward options.
Rail and port build-out: Lobito westward route vs. Tanzania-Zambia eastward link
The Tanzania‑Zambia railway toward Dar es Salaam moves ahead with projections of up to 3 million metric tons annually. That eastern line and the lobito corridor project give miners two major pathways to coast.
Supply chain resilience: diversifying exports of copper, cobalt, nickel, and graphite
Multiple corridors lower logistics risk. Shippers avoid single‑point delays and border bottlenecks, which cuts cost and increases throughput.
- Commodities: copper, cobalt, nickel, and graphite flow more predictably with reliable rail and port infrastructure.
- Financing: public‑private deals and blended finance speed delivery while supporting ESG and community development.
- Chain design: storage, wagons, port capacity, and digital tracking improve transparency and reduce loss.
“Diversified routes turn in-ground resources into stable exports and local jobs.”
| Feature | Lobito (Atlantic) | Tanzania‑Zambia (Indian Ocean) |
|---|---|---|
| Primary impact | Westward export relief | High annual throughput projection |
| Key commodities | Copper, cobalt, nickel | Copper, graphite, nickel |
| Development benefit | New ports and jobs | Improved regional trade links |
Risks, governance, and societal impact across African countries
Local trust and solid rules shape whether projects deliver broad benefits or fuel conflict. Poor engagement and opaque deals can produce lasting harm. Northern Mozambique shows how grievances tied to development and local jobs were exploited, producing violence and displacement before regional forces helped restore order.
Conflict dynamics and community consent: lessons from Mozambique’s north
Community consent is not optional. When residents feel excluded, unrest can spike and halt work.
Benefit-sharing, clear grievance mechanisms, and early consultation reduce risk and protect lives.
Rule of law, transparency, and ESG: distinguishing responsible operators
Transparent contracts and strong institutions attract good operators. They also deter illicit deals and raise standards across sectors.
“Strong ESG and third-party monitoring offer predictability for communities and developers.”
Security spoilers and illicit influence: private military actors and stability risks
Private armed groups and shadow security-for-resource swaps can erode national sovereignty and divert revenue away from public priorities. Reports link the Russia Africa Corps to abuses in several states, undermining trust and governance.
- Infrastructure gaps—power, roads, and ports—raise costs and delay timelines.
- Multi-stakeholder approaches with civil society, local governments, and firms help align projects with development goals.
| Challenge | Impact | Policy response |
|---|---|---|
| Community exclusion | Protests, delays | Benefit-sharing, grievance mechanisms |
| Opaque security deals | Revenue diversion, abuses | Transparent contracts, oversight |
| Infrastructure deficits | Higher costs, stalled value | Targeted public-private investment |
Conclusion
Turning big in‑ground deposits into lasting industry takes more than geology—it needs corridors, capital, and credible rules.
The continent’s resource base and the Lobito Corridor show promise, yet a roughly $100 billion annual infrastructure gap blocks faster development. China’s Belt and Road Initiative and processing edge remain vital forces, while the United States ramps targeted support through the Development Finance Corporation and EXIM for projects like Balama, Phalaborwa, Longonjo, and Orom‑Cross.
Practical steps will matter: standard offtake templates, blended finance for midstream facilities, targeted ports and rail, and stronger governance. Expanding the Minerals Security Partnership and sharpening commercial diplomacy can crowd in private investment and help countries capture more value.
Companies, governments, and investors share the job of turning resources into long‑term opportunities that deliver jobs and clean‑tech supply security.